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Carbon Fallout a world tour
updated April 2008
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| Glacial lake, Bhutan © Piet van der Poel |
The biggest impact of climate change falls on the poorest countries. These extracts from OneWorld Country Guides offer a glimpse into the inconvenient collateral damage of global warming. Ill-prepared even to assess the risks let alone adapt to them, these developing countries face disruption to their poverty reduction plans whilst those most responsible for the carbon footprint allow domestic concerns to stall negotiations.
» Climate Change Guide
updated April 2008
Bangladesh
Bangladesh has one of the lowest per capita levels of energy consumption in the world yet the country has been named in reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the most vulnerable to rising sea levels. A one metre rise could wipe out 20% of the country’s land mass, creating 30 million environmental refugees, perhaps as early as 2050. Climate predictions also envisage shorter but more severe monsoons, longer periods of drought, and more violent tropical storms, creating lower crop yields and increasing salinisation.
The low-lying delta lands of Bangladesh in which 30-40 million poor people have their homes have long been prone to serious flooding and devastating cyclones. The serious floods in 2007 closely followed by Cyclone Sidr have been described as the worst for at least a decade. If a structure of governance that is truly representative of its long-suffering people can emerge in Bangladesh, tough questions are bound to be asked about the responsibility for climate change and the potential liability of the great fossil fuel consumer countries conveniently located far from the rising seas of the Bay of Bengal.
Belize
Belize lies in the path of the annual cycle of hurricanes that sweep across the Caribbean. The country has never before experienced landfall of a Category 5 hurricane but during 2007 there were two. Belize is home to the largest coral reef system in the Western Hemisphere which, in addition to suffering damage caused by storms, is also vulnerable to warming ocean temperatures. Rising sea level is also a natural concern for a country most densely occupied along its coastal region. Campaigners have petitioned the UN to rule that countries responsible for climate change are in breach of their obligations to World Heritage Sites such as the Belize Barrier Reef. Whatever the outcome it appears likely that a country which is possibly a net sink for carbon dioxide through its extensive forests will nonetheless find itself in the front line of climate change impact.
Benin
In the south of Benin, coastal erosion has become a growing problem, resulting in loss of land and buildings. The economic capital, Cotonou, is particularly prone to flooding due to being located barely above sea level. Should there be a rise in sea levels due to global warming, these problems will intensify.
Bhutan
Increased danger of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods is the main impact expected from global warming in Bhutan. 22 glacial lakes are at risk of bursting, two lakes in West Bhutan have a very high risk. Efforts are undertaken to reduce the waterlevel and set up an early warning system. The National Environment Commission is presently assessing technology needs to deal with the effects of global warming.
Brazil
There are concerns about the use of soya and sugar cane for the production of biofuels, as part of Brazil’s high profile support for renewable energy sources (it is the world’s largest producer and consumer of ethanol). At the same time, it is the eighth largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the third largest in the developing world, after China and India, stemming largely from forestry and unsustainable land use.
During 2005, the Amazon region was hit by a severe drought, the worst for forty years, threatening health and the local economy as well as the environment. The cause of the drought is thought to be rising sea temperatures in the North Atlantic - indeed the Amazon rainforest and climate change are evolving in a highly sensitive state of interdependence. In fact, desertification is an issue in Brazil as a whole with 16% of the national territory at risk, particularly in the North and Northeast.
Burkina Faso
Concerns focus on the predominant livelihood of subsistence agriculture which is inefficient and highly vulnerable. For example, although the harvest for 2007 has exceeded basic food needs, poor distribution and poverty ensure that child malnutrition remains over 30%. All regions are known to have poor coping capacity for drought, flooding, and locusts, each of which is a regular hazard in Burkina Faso. The prospect of climate change aggravating these sensitivities undermines the already formidable challenge of the MDGs.
Burundi
Food security has been declining in Burundi since 1993, with conflict-related displacement and disruption undermining agricultural productivity. This was already hampered by its fragile profile of small farms, frequent land disputes, bad water management and lack of modern equipment. The situation has been aggravated in 2006 and 2007 by unstable climate conditions, firstly the drought that has affected all of East Africa, and secondly from serious flooding after torrential rains in the western provinces. Burundi will be one of the African countries to watch in the context of sensitivity to climate change. The country’s National Adaptation Programme of Action points out that “all the vital sectors of the national economy are affected by (climate change)” and that Burundi has “very low capacity of adaptation”.
Cambodia
The impact of climate change is threatening to undermine Cambodia’s efforts to catch up with the MDG programme. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2006 mentions anecdotal evidence of increased incidence of flooding since 2000 but contains little scientific analysis of the nature of potential change and its impact. However, it is recognised that the tropical climates in this region are particularly volatile and that Cambodia is predicted tol experience greater frequency and extremes of floods and drought.
Flooding and disablement of irrigation systems causes losses in rice production which Cambodia can ill afford. Adaptation projects will therefore give priority to water infrastructure and raising awareness amongst communities with very poor capacity for adaptation. Water management will also be relevant to address concerns about the spread of malaria and dengue fever, the latter has been particularly virulent in 2007.
China
Concerns about food security will be heightened further by the potential impact of climate change in China. The uncertain effect of drought and floods on crop yields together with the upheaval in freshwater availability caused by melting glaciers have rung alarm bells in government. Access to safe water and sanitation in much of rural China is already no better than the poorest countries in Africa and most of the country’s cities are already short of water.
Egypt
Egypt’s Nile Delta is particularly at risk from sea-level rise, which would threaten freshwater resources, crop production, fishing livelihoods and encourage the spread of diseases such as malaria.
Eritrea
The government’s isolationist food strategy was adopted before the impact of climate change on Africa had reached its current high state of alert. Alas Eritrea must be viewed as one of the most vulnerable countries in the continent, as is made clear in the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2007. The prospect of increased variability in rainfall patterns, more frequent drought, and rising sea levels (Eritrea has many low-lying islands) acting on a primitive system of agriculture surely calls for more fundamental investment than the steps of basic good practice identified in the NAPA report.
Ghana
Like most African countries Ghana will be extremely sensitive to the impact of climate change on its poor farmers. It has the additional serious vulnerability in the link between its primary energy supply and climate, most vividly illustrated in 2007. A long period of drought reduced the level of the Volta Lake below the point at which the hydro-electric turbine could function, effectively switching off 60% of Ghana’s power supply with fundamental economic consequences. Then exceptional rainfall dramatically reversed the situation but caused catastrophic flooding in the northern region, affecting 400,000 people and creating serious short term food shortages. At the New York climate summit in September 2007, President Kufuor was able to reflect on the bitter experience of successive drought and flooding, stating that it was “obviously climate change related, if not wholly caused by it”.
Haiti
Damaging feedback loops in the relationship between environmental degradation and poverty are particularly acute in Haiti. Many poor Haitians still rely on wood and charcoal for domestic activities which sets off a chain of deforestation, desertification and soil erosion, which in turn reduces farm yields. Widespread deforestation has affected 98% of Haiti’s forests, leaving the country vulnerable to hurricanes which sweep through the region. During the 2004 hurricane season, severe mudslides and flooding claimed thousands of lives whereas in neighbouring Dominican Republic, where forest cover has been preserved, less than 20 lives were lost. The impact of climate change on hurricane and rainfall patterns injects an alarming new dimension to this cycle of poverty.
India
The monsoon cycle recently has not been following its familiar path and there are alarming estimates that changes to the Himalayan glacier ecosystem could reduce India’s freshwater availability by as much as 30%. This scenario, together with the risks of rising sea levels and lower crop yields, has been publicised by the Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Rajendra K. Pachauri, himself an Indian. He has expressed the view that India is completely unprepared for the impact of climate change which he considers could lead to social unrest.
India’s own carbon dioxide emissions are projected to treble by 2050 at current rates. The country has no obligations under the Kyoto protocol and has stipulated that it is unwilling to agree to any targets that might compromise economic growth or poverty alleviation.
Indonesia
Indonesia is uniquely boxed in by climate change. Its high rate of deforestation has catapulted the country into the top five contributors to carbon emissions. At the same time Indonesia faces very significant potential impacts, potentially undermining the MDG programme. A World Bank sponsored report envisages “serious food security and health threats while endangering the habitats and livelihoods of coastal communities”. As the wet and dry seasons become more extreme in their character, there are concerns that rice varieties that typically crop twice a year will no longer do so and that water availability for irrigation and household use will be disrupted.
Indonesia is no stranger to extreme weather events, typically brought about by the phenomenon known as El Nino. The rising temperatures of climate change appear not only to be modifying the frequency of El Nino to once every 3 years instead of 4, but also to increasing the intensity of its tempests and floods. A string of disasters over recent years have revealed the tragic vulnerability of communities throughout Indonesia to natural phenomena. Damage to human life and infrastructure is rising.
There is very limited room for manoevre in countering the impact of climate change in Indonesia. There is reference to use of appropriate seed varieties, to planting mangrove forests to protect coastal populations, and to strengthening the infrastructure of water and sanitation. In international negotiations for a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, Indonesia is advocating that the Clean Development Mechanism should be amended so that a halt to deforestation would be rewarded by carbon credit payments from rich countries.
Kenya
By far the most severe environmental threat to Kenya is caused by increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns that are consistent with the predictions of human induced global warming. The consequence is uncertain food security, malnutrition and poverty, and an escalation of violent land disputes as the area’s pastoralists compete for scarce water resources.
Malawi
The impact of climate change on the fragile interplay between environment and poverty is causing great concern. A 2006 ActionAid report observed that "smallholder farmers in Malawi have been exposed to increased droughts and floods, tremendously affecting food security". Most of the poorest people depend on rain-fed agriculture whilst richer urban communities are themselves dependent on hydro-electric power which dominates Malawi's energy supplies. The country’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) identifies 5 priority projects valued at a mere $22.4 million, a tiny fraction of adaptation budgets currently emerging in rich countries.
Malaysia
Always somewhat reticent about publishing environmental data, Malaysia was subject to the embarrassing disclosure that its carbon dioxide emissions expanded 221% between 1990 and 2004, the highest rate in the world during a period in which the Kyoto Protocol, ratified by Malaysia, seeks to reduce emissions. An equally embarrassing and contributory factor is the annual rate of deforestation which almost doubled during this time from 0.35% to 0.65%. Malaysia was the world’s biggest producer of palm oil in 2007 and the expansion of this crop has been cited as a significant cause of deforestation, a view not accepted by the Malaysian government.
Malaysia is acutely aware of the potential impact of climate change on its own sensitive tropical ecosystems, in particular an estimated 10% fall in rice yields for each one degree rise in temperature, and the hydrological implications of more intense flooding and drought. The country’s formal 5 year economic plans will in future include a chapter addressing the mitigation of climate change.
Maldives
Maldives is one of the countries that is most vulnerable to global warming and rising sea levels. 80% of the land area is less than 1 meter above mean sea-level. Therefore even slight changes would have devastating consequences for the country.
Namibia
The recognised faultlines in Namibia's food security do not yet factor in the potential impact of climate change nor is there much evidence of public awareness nor government plans for adaptation. Yet a report published in late 2007 by the UK research group International Institute for Environment and Development describes Namibia as “highly vulnerable” to climate change and calls for urgent mainstreaming of its impact into all government policies.
Namibia has been referred to as a sandwich country, a slice of bushveld between two deserts: the Namib to the west and the Kalahari in the east. The risks of global warming lie predictably in increased intensity of drought leading to desertification and water scarcity, ironically combined with extreme flooding. The report says that there have been limited studies of the effect of changing sea temperatures on Namibia’s rich fishing resources which “rely on the nutrient-rich upwellings of the cold Benguela current”. It suggests that, with 30% of GDP dependent on the natural environment, including tourism, global warming could account for annual losses of between 1% and 6% of GDP. The state of emergency that the government was forced to declare in March 2008 in response to severe flooding and an outbreak of cholera in northern parts of the country may prompt greater focus on the subject.
Nepal
The impact of climate change, to which by contrast Nepal is a minimal contributor, threatens to thaw Himalayan snow and glaciers with potentially disastrous results. Reports published by UN agencies in 2007 conclude that the Himalaya region is warming at twice the global average rate and that glaciers are retreating faster than elsewhere in the world. As many as 20 lakes in the mountainous region have been identified as at risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). As in other parts of South Asia, the monsoon pattern appears to be unsettled, aggravating sensitive productivity of agriculture. Nepal lacks resources and expertise necessary to evaluate these risks and how to mitigate them.
Nigeria
Ironically, the Niger Delta could itself become the victim of climate change as rising sea levels threaten the coastline – the threat to Lagos has been cited in a high level report to the Nairobi climate change conference in November 2006, suggesting that as many as 1.3 million people could be affected.
Peru
Peru's environmental woes are completed by the misfortune that its vulnerability to the impact of climate change is possibly as serious as any country in the world. Its tropical glaciers are predicted to disappear by 2015 with fundamental consequences for the availability of freshwater to the entire population.
Philippines
None of the poverty reduction or health improvement programmes in the Philippines takes any account of the impact of climate change. Yet at the 2007 Bali UN Climate Change Conference, Philippines was the highest placed country in a new Global Climate Risk Index. This recognised that during 2006 extreme weather events accounted for 3,000 deaths and widespread destruction by mudslides and typhoons. The country has always been prone to natural disasters and the prospect of increased frequency and intensity spurred Greenpeace to publish a special report on the impact of climate change in the Philippines. Apart from extreme weather, there is concern that increasing temperature will affect agricultural yields and food security, whilst rising sea levels threaten over 40 million people who live in coastal regions.
Romania
EU membership may not be the only significant influence on Romanian farming in the early 21st century. Many areas of the country are prone to drought, increasingly so in recent decades according to the country’s National Strategy on Climate Change 2005-2007 document. In 2007, the wheat harvest was down 46%. Exceptionally high temperatures and water shortages have become familiar and are predicted to reduce crop yields.
South Africa
South Africa is both a major contributor to climate change and a potential victim of its impact. The country is 11th on the list of carbon dioxide emitters, ahead of France and Spain, but has no commitments to targeted reductions under the current Kyoto protocol. Yet its agriculture and freshwater supplies are very sensitive to rainfall patterns. A further complication is the country’s enthusiasm for ethanol production, based on inefficient maize crops. As in other countries, the complex interaction between climate change, potential economic benefits for farming communities, and higher food prices is uncertain.
Sri Lanka
Climate change will accentuate growing fears about food security, given the predictions of falling crop yields and disruption to the water cycle. Sri Lanka’s paddy farmers have already adjusted the timing of the planting cycle in response to changing monsoon patterns. Floods destroyed 2.5% of harvests in early 2008.
There are inevitable worries about the impact of rising sea levels on a coastline already battered by the 2004 tsunami. The irony of the more serious projections is that the Jaffna Peninsular, over which so much blood has been spilt, faces the risk of being submerged as it is the most low-lying coastal region.
Tajikistan
The crisis of the cold winter of 2008 may rapidly become an ironic footnote to the more fundamental threat of climate change to the glaciers of Tajikistan. Glacier melt contributes up to 20% of the run-off to local rivers which in turn are critical to Tajikistan’s hydropower, agriculture (the major crop – cotton – is particularly dependent on irrigation), and provision of safe drinking water. The major glaciers are reported to be retreating by about 20 metres each year and the implications for integrated water management are uncertain. The MDG to provide 74% of rural Tajikistan with safe drinking water is regarded as unlikely to be achieved without very significant investment. Hopes that untapped hydropower could bring relief to rural households accustomed to electricity for about 2 hours per day may founder on the unpredictable impact of climate change.
Unfortunately, conservation of depleted water resources is already an area of concern along the international boundaries of Central Asia where competition for scarce irrigation canal water can result in ethnic conflict between groups. The sensitive ecology of freshwater does not recognise national boundaries and there is an urgent need for Central Asian countries to work together to manage the fallout from global warming.
Tanzania
The 2006 MDG Progress Report for Tanzania makes not a single mention of the impact of climate change on poverty reduction plans. Yet the country’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in the following year offers over 60 pages of alarming grounds for concern. Of greatest significance is the assessment that a 2 degree rise in temperature could reduce yields of Tanzania’s staple maize crop by as much as 33%. Diversifying into new crop varieties will test impoverished farmers to the limit.
Tanzania is home to one of the great symbols of climate change – the melting icecap of Mount Kilimanjaro – which is projected to lose its permanence by 2020. However the greater significance of the Kilimanjaro region is the impact of temperature change on its sensitive forest ecosystem and the role that plays in the water cycle. Indeed water management dominates the NAPA list of recommended adaptation projects – irrigation, conservation, harvesting and hydropower – all vital in defending a rural economy which the World Food Programme describes as “highly susceptible to climatic shocks”. Alongside concerns about expanding malaria risk, increased insect infestations, and pressure on the “rangelands” already overused for livestock, it is clearly the poorest communities who will be hit hardest. It seems illogical to pump hundreds of millions of aid dollars into Tanzania’s development agenda whilst climate change adaptation funds contemplate mere fractions of these sums.
Uganda
The impact of climate change could create serious difficulties for Uganda’s poverty reduction plans for a number of different reasons. Prolonged drought and over-extraction have reduced the level of Lake Victoria to its lowest for over 60 years. The over-dependence on hydropower from that source has created serious energy shortages forcing many manufacturers to cut jobs or raise prices........ Over 80% of employment is in agriculture which is very sensitive to changing rainfall patterns. For example, UNEP has published a study which concluded that a 2 degree rise in temperature would make it almost impossible to grow coffee beans in Uganda. And there is clear evidence that the glaciers of the Rwenzori mountains are in retreat, threatening the stability of the water cycle in the region. Access to safe water and sanitation is already inadequate in rural areas and changes in temperature and water flows could also have unpredictable implications for malaria.
Uzbekistan
Climate change injects a further uncertainty for water management which is a high priority for Uzbekistan, and the region as a whole, to minimize the risks for violent conflict and environmental degradation.
Vietnam
An exceptionally severe year for typhoons in 2006 has alerted Vietnam to the potential impact of climate change, already viewed as a risk to the low-lying Mekong Delta region.
Zambia
Zambia is among those countries where food security is marginal and therefore highly vulnerable to climate change. The country is responsible for a miniscule 0.006% of global carbon dioxide emissions but a 2007 report by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) says that climate change will hit Zambia particularly hard. The government’s National Adaptation Programme of Action published in 2007 says that “drought and floods have increased in frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades and have adversely impacted on food and water insecurity” - access to safe drinking water in rural areas is only 37%. Severe flooding at the end of 2006 and again in 2007 has been blamed by a minister on climate change.
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| Man with child in floodwaters, Bangladesh © CARE International UK |
The low-lying delta lands of Bangladesh in which 30-40 million poor people have their homes have long been prone to serious flooding and devastating cyclones. The serious floods in 2007 closely followed by Cyclone Sidr have been described as the worst for at least a decade. If a structure of governance that is truly representative of its long-suffering people can emerge in Bangladesh, tough questions are bound to be asked about the responsibility for climate change and the potential liability of the great fossil fuel consumer countries conveniently located far from the rising seas of the Bay of Bengal.
Belize
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| Fish and corals in Belize © WWF-Canon/Anthony B. Rath |
Benin
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| Benin's own Venice © Dan Gerber |
Bhutan
Increased danger of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods is the main impact expected from global warming in Bhutan. 22 glacial lakes are at risk of bursting, two lakes in West Bhutan have a very high risk. Efforts are undertaken to reduce the waterlevel and set up an early warning system. The National Environment Commission is presently assessing technology needs to deal with the effects of global warming.
Brazil
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| Amazon burning © Environment News Service (ENS) |
During 2005, the Amazon region was hit by a severe drought, the worst for forty years, threatening health and the local economy as well as the environment. The cause of the drought is thought to be rising sea temperatures in the North Atlantic - indeed the Amazon rainforest and climate change are evolving in a highly sensitive state of interdependence. In fact, desertification is an issue in Brazil as a whole with 16% of the national territory at risk, particularly in the North and Northeast.
Burkina Faso
Concerns focus on the predominant livelihood of subsistence agriculture which is inefficient and highly vulnerable. For example, although the harvest for 2007 has exceeded basic food needs, poor distribution and poverty ensure that child malnutrition remains over 30%. All regions are known to have poor coping capacity for drought, flooding, and locusts, each of which is a regular hazard in Burkina Faso. The prospect of climate change aggravating these sensitivities undermines the already formidable challenge of the MDGs.
Burundi
Food security has been declining in Burundi since 1993, with conflict-related displacement and disruption undermining agricultural productivity. This was already hampered by its fragile profile of small farms, frequent land disputes, bad water management and lack of modern equipment. The situation has been aggravated in 2006 and 2007 by unstable climate conditions, firstly the drought that has affected all of East Africa, and secondly from serious flooding after torrential rains in the western provinces. Burundi will be one of the African countries to watch in the context of sensitivity to climate change. The country’s National Adaptation Programme of Action points out that “all the vital sectors of the national economy are affected by (climate change)” and that Burundi has “very low capacity of adaptation”.
Cambodia
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| Cambodia farmer © Heifer International |
Flooding and disablement of irrigation systems causes losses in rice production which Cambodia can ill afford. Adaptation projects will therefore give priority to water infrastructure and raising awareness amongst communities with very poor capacity for adaptation. Water management will also be relevant to address concerns about the spread of malaria and dengue fever, the latter has been particularly virulent in 2007.
China
Concerns about food security will be heightened further by the potential impact of climate change in China. The uncertain effect of drought and floods on crop yields together with the upheaval in freshwater availability caused by melting glaciers have rung alarm bells in government. Access to safe water and sanitation in much of rural China is already no better than the poorest countries in Africa and most of the country’s cities are already short of water.
Egypt
Egypt’s Nile Delta is particularly at risk from sea-level rise, which would threaten freshwater resources, crop production, fishing livelihoods and encourage the spread of diseases such as malaria.
Eritrea
The government’s isolationist food strategy was adopted before the impact of climate change on Africa had reached its current high state of alert. Alas Eritrea must be viewed as one of the most vulnerable countries in the continent, as is made clear in the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in 2007. The prospect of increased variability in rainfall patterns, more frequent drought, and rising sea levels (Eritrea has many low-lying islands) acting on a primitive system of agriculture surely calls for more fundamental investment than the steps of basic good practice identified in the NAPA report.
Ghana
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| Rice farming, Ghana |
Haiti
Damaging feedback loops in the relationship between environmental degradation and poverty are particularly acute in Haiti. Many poor Haitians still rely on wood and charcoal for domestic activities which sets off a chain of deforestation, desertification and soil erosion, which in turn reduces farm yields. Widespread deforestation has affected 98% of Haiti’s forests, leaving the country vulnerable to hurricanes which sweep through the region. During the 2004 hurricane season, severe mudslides and flooding claimed thousands of lives whereas in neighbouring Dominican Republic, where forest cover has been preserved, less than 20 lives were lost. The impact of climate change on hurricane and rainfall patterns injects an alarming new dimension to this cycle of poverty.
India
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| Woman carrying water, Rajasthan © CARE India |
India’s own carbon dioxide emissions are projected to treble by 2050 at current rates. The country has no obligations under the Kyoto protocol and has stipulated that it is unwilling to agree to any targets that might compromise economic growth or poverty alleviation.
Indonesia
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| Log barge, Indonesia, FO-5709 © Patrick Durst / Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations |
Indonesia is no stranger to extreme weather events, typically brought about by the phenomenon known as El Nino. The rising temperatures of climate change appear not only to be modifying the frequency of El Nino to once every 3 years instead of 4, but also to increasing the intensity of its tempests and floods. A string of disasters over recent years have revealed the tragic vulnerability of communities throughout Indonesia to natural phenomena. Damage to human life and infrastructure is rising.
There is very limited room for manoevre in countering the impact of climate change in Indonesia. There is reference to use of appropriate seed varieties, to planting mangrove forests to protect coastal populations, and to strengthening the infrastructure of water and sanitation. In international negotiations for a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, Indonesia is advocating that the Clean Development Mechanism should be amended so that a halt to deforestation would be rewarded by carbon credit payments from rich countries.
Kenya
By far the most severe environmental threat to Kenya is caused by increasingly unpredictable rainfall patterns that are consistent with the predictions of human induced global warming. The consequence is uncertain food security, malnutrition and poverty, and an escalation of violent land disputes as the area’s pastoralists compete for scarce water resources.
Malawi
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| Floods in Malawi © United Nations' Integrated Regional Information Network |
Malaysia
Always somewhat reticent about publishing environmental data, Malaysia was subject to the embarrassing disclosure that its carbon dioxide emissions expanded 221% between 1990 and 2004, the highest rate in the world during a period in which the Kyoto Protocol, ratified by Malaysia, seeks to reduce emissions. An equally embarrassing and contributory factor is the annual rate of deforestation which almost doubled during this time from 0.35% to 0.65%. Malaysia was the world’s biggest producer of palm oil in 2007 and the expansion of this crop has been cited as a significant cause of deforestation, a view not accepted by the Malaysian government.
Malaysia is acutely aware of the potential impact of climate change on its own sensitive tropical ecosystems, in particular an estimated 10% fall in rice yields for each one degree rise in temperature, and the hydrological implications of more intense flooding and drought. The country’s formal 5 year economic plans will in future include a chapter addressing the mitigation of climate change.
Maldives
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| Addu Atoll. Maldives © Karin Afeef |
Namibia
The recognised faultlines in Namibia's food security do not yet factor in the potential impact of climate change nor is there much evidence of public awareness nor government plans for adaptation. Yet a report published in late 2007 by the UK research group International Institute for Environment and Development describes Namibia as “highly vulnerable” to climate change and calls for urgent mainstreaming of its impact into all government policies.
Namibia has been referred to as a sandwich country, a slice of bushveld between two deserts: the Namib to the west and the Kalahari in the east. The risks of global warming lie predictably in increased intensity of drought leading to desertification and water scarcity, ironically combined with extreme flooding. The report says that there have been limited studies of the effect of changing sea temperatures on Namibia’s rich fishing resources which “rely on the nutrient-rich upwellings of the cold Benguela current”. It suggests that, with 30% of GDP dependent on the natural environment, including tourism, global warming could account for annual losses of between 1% and 6% of GDP. The state of emergency that the government was forced to declare in March 2008 in response to severe flooding and an outbreak of cholera in northern parts of the country may prompt greater focus on the subject.
Nepal
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| Mountain floods © International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development |
Nigeria
Ironically, the Niger Delta could itself become the victim of climate change as rising sea levels threaten the coastline – the threat to Lagos has been cited in a high level report to the Nairobi climate change conference in November 2006, suggesting that as many as 1.3 million people could be affected.
Peru
Peru's environmental woes are completed by the misfortune that its vulnerability to the impact of climate change is possibly as serious as any country in the world. Its tropical glaciers are predicted to disappear by 2015 with fundamental consequences for the availability of freshwater to the entire population.
Philippines
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| Slash and burn in the Philippines © VJ Toledo/WWF-Canon / WWF International |
Romania
EU membership may not be the only significant influence on Romanian farming in the early 21st century. Many areas of the country are prone to drought, increasingly so in recent decades according to the country’s National Strategy on Climate Change 2005-2007 document. In 2007, the wheat harvest was down 46%. Exceptionally high temperatures and water shortages have become familiar and are predicted to reduce crop yields.
South Africa
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| Are biofuels a panacea or curse for the poor? © Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) |
Sri Lanka
Climate change will accentuate growing fears about food security, given the predictions of falling crop yields and disruption to the water cycle. Sri Lanka’s paddy farmers have already adjusted the timing of the planting cycle in response to changing monsoon patterns. Floods destroyed 2.5% of harvests in early 2008.
There are inevitable worries about the impact of rising sea levels on a coastline already battered by the 2004 tsunami. The irony of the more serious projections is that the Jaffna Peninsular, over which so much blood has been spilt, faces the risk of being submerged as it is the most low-lying coastal region.
Tajikistan
The crisis of the cold winter of 2008 may rapidly become an ironic footnote to the more fundamental threat of climate change to the glaciers of Tajikistan. Glacier melt contributes up to 20% of the run-off to local rivers which in turn are critical to Tajikistan’s hydropower, agriculture (the major crop – cotton – is particularly dependent on irrigation), and provision of safe drinking water. The major glaciers are reported to be retreating by about 20 metres each year and the implications for integrated water management are uncertain. The MDG to provide 74% of rural Tajikistan with safe drinking water is regarded as unlikely to be achieved without very significant investment. Hopes that untapped hydropower could bring relief to rural households accustomed to electricity for about 2 hours per day may founder on the unpredictable impact of climate change.
Unfortunately, conservation of depleted water resources is already an area of concern along the international boundaries of Central Asia where competition for scarce irrigation canal water can result in ethnic conflict between groups. The sensitive ecology of freshwater does not recognise national boundaries and there is an urgent need for Central Asian countries to work together to manage the fallout from global warming.
Tanzania
The 2006 MDG Progress Report for Tanzania makes not a single mention of the impact of climate change on poverty reduction plans. Yet the country’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) published in the following year offers over 60 pages of alarming grounds for concern. Of greatest significance is the assessment that a 2 degree rise in temperature could reduce yields of Tanzania’s staple maize crop by as much as 33%. Diversifying into new crop varieties will test impoverished farmers to the limit.
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| Receding glaciers of Mount Kilimanjaro © Greenpeace International |
Uganda
The impact of climate change could create serious difficulties for Uganda’s poverty reduction plans for a number of different reasons. Prolonged drought and over-extraction have reduced the level of Lake Victoria to its lowest for over 60 years. The over-dependence on hydropower from that source has created serious energy shortages forcing many manufacturers to cut jobs or raise prices........ Over 80% of employment is in agriculture which is very sensitive to changing rainfall patterns. For example, UNEP has published a study which concluded that a 2 degree rise in temperature would make it almost impossible to grow coffee beans in Uganda. And there is clear evidence that the glaciers of the Rwenzori mountains are in retreat, threatening the stability of the water cycle in the region. Access to safe water and sanitation is already inadequate in rural areas and changes in temperature and water flows could also have unpredictable implications for malaria.
Uzbekistan
Climate change injects a further uncertainty for water management which is a high priority for Uzbekistan, and the region as a whole, to minimize the risks for violent conflict and environmental degradation.
Vietnam
An exceptionally severe year for typhoons in 2006 has alerted Vietnam to the potential impact of climate change, already viewed as a risk to the low-lying Mekong Delta region.
Zambia
Zambia is among those countries where food security is marginal and therefore highly vulnerable to climate change. The country is responsible for a miniscule 0.006% of global carbon dioxide emissions but a 2007 report by the World Conservation Union (IUCN) says that climate change will hit Zambia particularly hard. The government’s National Adaptation Programme of Action published in 2007 says that “drought and floods have increased in frequency, intensity and magnitude over the last two decades and have adversely impacted on food and water insecurity” - access to safe drinking water in rural areas is only 37%. Severe flooding at the end of 2006 and again in 2007 has been blamed by a minister on climate change.
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